| Michal Kurlaender
Harvard University
Reinforcing disadvantage or increasing opportunity? Alternative routes to educational attainment
FINAL RREPORT:
In the latter part of the twentieth century, the U.S. educational system witnessed major expansion, with increasing enrollment of individuals from all backgrounds at all levels of educational attainment. The introduction of the General Education Development (GED) certificate in 1942, expansion of the community college, and the growth in vocational training have opened up new secondary and postsecondary educational opportunities. Today, as educational pathways become more complex, with expanded opportunities for schooling being provided through alternate routes and entry points, researchers have remained interested in the question of increased opportunities for whom?
My dissertation investigates how individuals from different social origin and racial/ethnic backgrounds utilize the GED route to postsecondary attainment. I analyze data from the National Education Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS:88), which contains information on a nationally representative sample of 8th graders originally sampled in 1988 and followed over time in four subsequent waves of data collection. To address my research question, I use logistic regression analysis to investigate the relationship between postsecondary participation and route of high school exit (Diploma, GED, Dropout) for individuals from different social strata. I then use the existing distributions of dropouts, GED recipients and diploma holders to present expected rates of postsecondary participation for each respective route of high school exit across socioeconomic status. To address selection bias, I conduct a set of sensitivity analyses to hypothesize and specify the mechanism that generates the selection of students into the three possible high school exit routes. Students' choices about whether to remain a dropout, to obtain a GED, or to obtain a diploma are subject to their preferences, financial constraints, beliefs about the prospects of benefiting from the respective credentials, and other unobservable characteristics. To address the bias that results from this potential selection, I use a propensity score blocking technique.
My study reveals that, when evaluating postsecondary entry, the GED functions within the existing system of stratification; it neither exacerbates it by advantaging individuals from higher socioeconomic status, nor reduces it by attenuating the effects of socioeconomic status on postsecondary entry. Inspecting expected rates of postsecondary participation as a result of choosing particular high school exit routes, I find that the GED clearly presents an alternative entryway for postsecondary schooling for some students, not those from the most disadvantaged backgrounds-who may have had the resources to get a GED but not to pursue postsecondary studies, but also not the most affluent students, who primarily obtain a diploma and rarely choose the GED route out of high school.
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