| Aruna Lakshmanan
Louisiana State University
A longitudinal study of adolescent educational aspirations and their relation to college choice using hierarchical linear modeling and group-based mixture modeling
FINAL REPORT:
The purpose of this study was four-fold: (1) to investigate the patterns of change in educational aspirations from the eighth grade through the twelfth in a large national sample of students from the National Educational Longitudinal Survey of 1988 (NELS:88); (2) to understand how demographic, socioeconomic, parental, academic, and school experience factors impact both initial aspirations and change in aspirations; (3) to investigate how educational aspirations relate to students' attempts to actualize plans for postsecondary education; and (4) to analyze the data and compare the results obtained using two different growth modeling techniques Ð hierarchical linear modeling and group-based mixture modeling.
Major findings of the study showed that (1) average student aspirations remained fairly stable from the eighth grade through the twelfth, showing a slight but not significant increase; (2) most of the factors considered in the study affected initial student aspirations; (3) seven distinct clusters of aspiration trajectories can be identified; (4) many students who had high aspirations had failed to build a wide choice set of postsecondary institutions to apply to; (5) among the factors considered, educational aspirations had the strongest impact on the number of applications filed; (6) parental expectations and involvement had effects on early student aspirations but not on the number of applications filed; (9) students who had both high and stable aspirations from the eighth grade through the twelfth generally had a wider choice set of applications than students who demonstrated a steady increase in aspirations.
Hierarchical linear modeling provided an understanding of the average growth in aspirations, the variability around that growth and the effects of covariates on initial aspirations and the change in aspirations. Group-based mixture modeling helped investigate the different clusters of aspiration trajectories and permitted a linkage of these clusters with patterns of student application to postsecondary institutions. The strengths of the different modeling techniques are addressed and implications of the results for educational policy, practice, and future research are also discussed. Results indicate that the timing of any efforts to help students develop high aspirations as well as take steps toward postsecondary education is crucial. Any interventions or programs planned to help students actualize their aspirations should be executed early, when students are in elementary or middle school. Policymakers need to focus on getting students adequate information about postsecondary educational opportunities, the services available to them to help with the college search process, financial aid, as well as helping students understand how to meet career goals by performing well academically and making appropriate curricular choices. Another way in which policymakers can help students, especially those from lower SES backgrounds, is to organize more mentoring programs.
Educating parents from lower SES backgrounds and who have had no college education about the college search and choice process and financial aid early on may help them to not only have higher expectations for their children, but also help them play a more active role later on when their children are in the college search stage. College admissions and marketing personnel and educators can also play a role in helping motivate students to go to college as well as providing information about how to do this.
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