| Jae-Eun Chae
Harvard University
Student departure from U.S. community colleges: A competing risks survival analysis
FINAL REPORT:
Currently, community colleges enroll about 40% of all U.S. college students. Most of these colleges serve older, part-time students who are at higher risk of dropping out than are younger, full-time students. Nonetheless, little is known about student departure from community colleges. Given that the proportion of adult, part-time students is growing, it is critical to understand when and why community college students are most likely to leave college.
In this study, I attempted to bridge this information gap by using data on 588 students drawn from the Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study. I explored when students who aspire to a degree at U.S. public community colleges are most likely to first drop out, stop out, transfer, or graduate with an associate's degree. I also examined whether students' academic integration level is associated with modes of departure, after controlling for selected other student characteristics. To address these issues, I conducted a competing risks survival analysis that enabled me to examine all the paths students may take through school.
I found that while students are most likely to first drop out, stop out, or transfer during their freshman year, they are most likely to first graduate during their fifth academic year. I also found there are differences in ways of departure by selected background characteristics. Students who are older upon entry into college, white, and part-time are more likely to drop out, while those who are part-time are more likely to stop out. Students who are younger, minority, and male are more likely to transfer, while those who are younger, female, and full-time are more likely to graduate. I also found that socioeconomic status accounts for variation in all four types of departure, while the average number of hours of weekly employment is only related to stopout. Finally, I found that academic integration level is a significant predictor of all four forms of departure: the higher the academic integration level, the lower the risk of dropout or stopout and the higher the risk of transfer or graduation. This suggests that administrators should provide more opportunities to integrate students fully into the academic life of the institution.
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